Friday, May 21, 2010

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Ofi Private Equity Capital, a discount unjustified!


Since our previous article, the title OPEC grew by 10.6%. In a little over 3 months, you certainly will find this excellent performance, especially with the stock market turmoil of the period!

Certainly, performance is significant, but the discount on the last Net Asset Value (NAV) per share is still exaggerated.
C A s usual, the company has released a very nice presentation on the 2009 accounts. You can download it here .

Companies portfolio had an activity slightly lower than in 2008 (-6%) but maintained their margin with level EBITDA average of 16.6% in 2009! This is an excellent level of profitability.

Finally, the model of growth and recurrence of the activity of the main interests of OPEC are good omens for the patient investor .

We will keep following points in particular as regards the NRA and its evolution:

summarize the three points:

1. If EBITDA of equity portfolio grew by 10%, the impact on the NAV per share will be 3.54 euros .

2. The debt of EUR 10 million, will mechanically increase the NAV 1.65 euros.

3. Rising stock of comparable 10% will have a positive effect on the NAV per share of 0.65 euros.

If we retain the first two points which are likely to be achieved in the medium term, the NRA will increase by 5.19 euros per share. That's the magic of leverage which improves yields!

We will not consider the third hypothesis that values only the companies held in portfolio by comparable, which has nothing to do with fundamentals.

published NAV per share at March 31, 2010 is 18.40 euros per share. You can read the official publication here.

The discount

At a closing price (21.05.10) from 8.64 euros, the discount is greater than 50% . The potential of the stock relative to its last known RDA is 113%!

If we consider the two as probable hypothesis we have just seen, the NRA can reach € 23.59 = € 18.49 (NAV at 31 March 2010) + 5.19 euros ( EBITDA growth of 10% and repayment of debts of 10 million EUR). In this case, the potential would be 173%.

course, that said leverage, also called " Massu effect. That is to say that the size of the debt can completely screw up the plans of the private equity company if the recurrence of the activities of its holdings falling and / or profitability in recent decreases. It is possible that this pathway is emerging in the months / years coming, and if so OPEC will be unable to cope with debt service.

Weigh the pros and cons before investing in this kind of title. Your opinions are welcome.

Ticker: OPEC
course the day of publication: € 8.64 (da you closing 21.05.10)
Yield: 10.6 %
Tip: PURCHASE
Main risk: highly leveraged

Thursday, May 13, 2010

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2009 a good year for our values in the construction


Moury Construct and NCI published their 2009 annual accounts. You will find these publications here:

- Accounts 2009, NCI: here
- Accounts 2009 to Moury: here



As we explained in a previous article, we Investors believe that the value has an interest in thinking on . Below we have summarized the main information of interest for each Title: equity, PER, net cash, backlog and ROE.





For information, reference courses selected for this analysis are as of Thursday 13.05.10 at closing.



What can we learn from these figures?

In terms of profitability, companies have both a PER less than 9, which is a good level. The NCI ROE is relatively higher than Moury to 14% against 11%. However, given the sector, these levels are exceptionally high!

In terms of asset valuation, we see that tangible equity per share are higher for NCI (taking into account a valuation of property in the United States at fair value and not at cost history). Moury is penalized by intangible assets consist solely of goodwill.

Regarding cash per share, again the two companies are at near: over 90% of market capitalization is covered by the cash net of debt! And as we have seen in a previous article , companies that have a gold mine and continue to generate positive cash flows are likely to bring surprises to their shareholders.

Finally, visibility. This time it Moury Construct which takes the lead with an activity level that allows him to see the year 2010 with serenity.


Conclusion

Both companies are still in excellent financial shape.

From a purely "value", NCI has a higher discount to its tangible assets. Nevertheless, Moury has greater visibility due to a backlog filled for the entire year.

Note nonetheless that NCI could book of surprises by the end of the year with the unwinding on the record of the airport Nantes and medium term, a positive output of the real estate business in Romania.

The liquidity of both titles is still very low, we recommend extreme caution if you want to buy these securities. However as part of a long-term investment, we believe that buying the shares of these two companies represents limited risks to a potential gain important.

Since purchasing our advice dated 24.4.2009, NCI conducted a performance of 68.2% (dividend included) and Construct Moury since we reported 20/06/2009 +27.5%.

Which of these two titles do you prefer? Which do you have in the portfolio?

Sunday, May 2, 2010

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Monthly report - April 2010



You will find below the reporting month of April. Two

advice only: buy or sell.

You can download the file of April. PDF format here: 2010.04 - Reporting mensuel.pdf




Comments month:
Numerous publications of annual reports this month. Analyses will be published soon to reflect data as of 31.12.2009

Life titles

NCI
Annual Report 2009 published.

Moury Construct
Annual Report 2009 published.
Orsus
Annual Report 2009 published.

COFIGEO
Various speculations about a change of management. For now just rumors. Proposed dividend of EUR 5.

Regional Bank Credit Agricole Mutuel Toulouse

Annual Report 2009 published.

OFI Private Equity Capital (OPEC)
Annual Report 2009 published.

Vianini Lavori
RAS

Average Yield

Since the analysis, the average yield is 13.2%.

Please consult analysis Value and Profit.